This week I’ve been reading Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets the by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, as you can assume by the title it is a book on randomness and luck. So far it is an enjoyable book, luck and randomness are all around us, often we don’t realize it. Taleb observes that many people attribute good luck to skill, and lack of skill to bad luck.
To clear up a little misconception, odds are usually what the chance of bad things that could happen, or an undesirable outcomes. Probability is the chances of positive outcomes. For information on this take a look at the link: http://www.math-magic.com/probability/prob_to_odds.htm
Reading it caused me to question how to calculate odds and probabilities. Poker is one of my favorite games, I enjoy the psychology of the game, but also watching for the chances. The odds of a Royal Flush are 649,739 : 1 and only a 0.000154% probability. Yet, it does happen.
Think about it this way, in our world there are approximately 7 billion, with a b, people in this world. Think of all those different chance things that are happening, good, bad, lucky, random.
So, this week I’ve picked the phrase, “Facing the odds.” Everyday there are hundreds of things that are either stacked for or against me. My job is to take it as it is and determine to beat the odds.
At the farm, you face hard odds. Weather, death, pests, drought, storms, and viruses. There are many ways for things to go wrong, many ways for things to go well. But the key is to be hardy enough to weather the bad times and prosper in the good. We always do, and should, “Face the odds.”